Augusta, GA - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now expect an average to below-average hurricane season due to the developing El Nino global weather cycle.

NHC now forecasts a 50% probability for a normal season and a 40% probability for a below-normal season. Forecasters suggest a 70% chance of seven to 11 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes with one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5). 

El Nino is part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and refers to warmer than normal waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. During an El Nino, the change in location of thunderstorms over the Pacific Ocean shifts the jet stream further south over the Atlantic Ocean. This causes higher winds aloft over the Atlantic which in turn makes it much harder for tropical systems to develop.

Although the forecast calls for fewer storms this year, any storm could be catastrophic. The best example is the relatively quiet 1992 hurricane season which featured fewer storms than average. It also featured deadly Hurricane Andrew.

For more information straight from the National Hurricane Center, please click here.