AUGUSTA, Ga. - A developing El Nino could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes this year and a better chance for snow over the Aiken-Augusta region. The El Nino global weather pattern also can bring cooler than average temperatures for our winter as well as rainier than average weather during the fall and spring.

El Nino is part of the global weather cycle called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The Southern Oscillation is a change in air pressure patterns over the Pacific Ocean. El Nino and La Nina refer to a warmer or cooler than normal sea-surface temperature in the eastern Pacific. El Nino refers to the case when water in the eastern Pacific is warmer than normal. La Nina refers to the cold case.

ENSO is one of the best understood global weather cycles, and by looking at past years we can make general seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation over large areas.

Unfortunately, we still have little ability to predict the intensity of El Nino (or La Nina) once it begins, and we also have minimal ability to forecast when it will end.

Waters in the eastern Pacific have been slowly warming over the past several months, and last Thursday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an Advisory suggesting El Nino could continue through the winter and perhaps get stronger.

One of the main El Nino impacts in the United States is to increase the winds aloft over the Atlantic Ocean, and this often markedly reduces the number of hurricanes. Another major impact is stormier weather over the southern part of the country, especially over the Pacific Southwest.
 

For maps showing current temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, click here.

For maps showing typical El Nino impacts, click here.

For a detailed discussion of ENSO, click here.